Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Polymarket, closing March 31, 2027. The market is pricing "The Odyssey" at 77% probability of reaching the IMDb Top 250, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—31.3% for Yes versus 350.4% for No—suggest significant uncertainty despite the high headline price.
Analysis
The market is pricing "The Odyssey" at 77% probability of reaching the IMDb Top 250, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—31.3% for Yes versus 350.4% for No—suggest significant uncertainty despite the high headline price. With only $15 in 24-hour volume against $1.66M open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the 8¢ spread potentially misleading and creating execution risk for larger positions. The 349-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for the film's critical reception to crystallize, though the neutral regime and modest cliff risk (3/10) indicate no imminent catalysts are priced in.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe924ffee67adc6863a064dff42bbcc8b81f7f8dbea727ccfc69b2aed3b39b48d yes 100