Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely high 91% probability of Democratic victory in Rhode Island's 2026 Senate race, but the extreme 1846% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the Republican outcome—with only $0 in 24-hour volume and just $20k open interest, this is a thin, potentially unreliable market. The 72% realized volatility and 10 Cliff Risk Index suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface despite the confident headline price, and the sharp asymmetry between Yes (18.1%) and No (1846%) yields indicates the market may be overweighting Democratic odds due to lack of price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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