Will the Democratic Party win the TN-01 House seat?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a Democratic win probability priced at just 6¢ despite TN-01 being a competitive district, generating an astronomical 2,849.7% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag for illiquid, thin markets. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $29,869 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests minimal trading activity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates elevated volatility near resolution in November 2026. The massive yield differential (2,849.7% vs. 11.6%) and neutral regime score suggest this pricing reflects either severe market inefficiency or a structural liquidity problem rather than genuine conviction that Democrats have only a 6% chance in this district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade