Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 136.3% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 25.0% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 70¢ price may be overvalued relative to risk-adjusted returns.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 136.3% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 25.0% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 70¢ price may be overvalued relative to risk-adjusted returns. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a wide 19¢ spread and massive 424% realized volatility indicates low liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency, while the sharp 48¢-to-70¢ seven-day rally warrants scrutiny into whether recent information arrival (1.6/hour) justifies the move. With 625 days to expiry and a 2 Cliff Risk Index, the market has substantial time for resolution but faces binary execution risk around o1's actual tokenomics strategy.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xec37b4aa424a2dafd3708afad60b817b7a3c05d20133af5ae6d9e89708ac4d57 yes 100