Will the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?

This market shows extremely lopsided risk metrics, with the "No" side offering a 1217% implied yield versus just 27.2% for the heavily favored Republican outcome at 87¢. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $21.7M open interest suggests this is a stale or illiquid position, raising questions about whether the 87¢ price accurately reflects current sentiment or represents trapped liquidity from earlier betting. The 609% risk-adjusted implied yield and elevated cliff risk index (7/10) indicate significant tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty about whether the Republican candidate will even be nominated or face unexpected competitive dynamics in this Texas district over the next 201 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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