Will the Republican Party win the FL-05 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 88¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 1338.6% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity—the $13,832 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. The 24.9% annualized yield on the "Yes" side appears reasonable for a 200-day horizon, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and elevated cliff risk index of 7 warrant caution about potential late-campaign volatility before the November 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade