Will the Democratic Party win the CA-26 House seat?

The Democratic lean in CA-26 is priced extremely high at 94¢, reflecting either strong fundamentals or potential mispricing given the thin 24-hour volume of just $2.14 against $19.8k open interest. The No side offers an extraordinary 2859% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity on the Republican outcome—a classic sign of a one-sided market where the minority position is drastically underpriced relative to tail risk. With 200 days to expiry and a modest Cliff Risk Index of 16, there's time for repricing, but the 1¢ spread indicates limited market depth for meaningful position entry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade