Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 4443.9% implied yield on the YES side versus just 54.9% on the NO side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand despite crude's current distance from $150. The 12¢ price implies only a 12% probability of crude hitting $150 within 74 days, which appears conservative given the 828% realized volatility and 1.45 vol ratio, though the 9/10 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential liquidity evaporation near expiration. With $21M in 24-hour volume against $49M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, this market has reasonable depth, but the extreme yield skew and elevated information arrival rate (0.6/h) suggest traders are pricing in either a geopolitical shock scenario or significant model disagreement about crude's upside potential.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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