Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Republicans will retain West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, with a tight 1¢ spread indicating confidence in this outcome. However, the "No" side exhibits an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,849.7%, suggesting severe illiquidity on the Democratic side—with zero 24-hour volume and only $35,935 in open interest, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliable for hedging or large positions. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political shifts, yet the neutral regime score and minimal recent price movement (93¢ to 94¢) suggest the market has settled into a stable equilibrium reflecting WV-01's strong Republican lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade