Will the Republican Party win the TX-19 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely confident Republican outcome at 93¢ with minimal recent price movement, but the stark asymmetry in implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 2416.7% for No—signals severe illiquidity on the No side with only $26,255 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The extraordinarily high risk-adjusted yield of 1208% and cliff risk index of 13 suggest this market lacks sufficient liquidity to reliably reflect true uncertainty, making the 93¢ price potentially overconfident despite TX-19's historical Republican lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade