Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14¢ price implying only 14% probability for a 105-110m vote range, yet the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches an astronomical 1117%—suggesting the market is severely undervaluing this outcome relative to historical midterm turnout patterns (2022 saw 113.6m votes, 2018 saw 113.1m).
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14¢ price implying only 14% probability for a 105-110m vote range, yet the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches an astronomical 1117%—suggesting the market is severely undervaluing this outcome relative to historical midterm turnout patterns (2022 saw 113.6m votes, 2018 saw 113.1m). The zero 24-hour volume combined with $2.5m open interest and a wide 7¢ spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the extreme yield figures potentially unreliable and the market vulnerable to sharp repricing once volume materializes. With 201 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2327%, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus expectations for what should be a relatively predictable outcome.
Resolution rules
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
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Trade
sf trade 0xf2924613881a3d3ad213c0aa2f868d7b1f7e163820d2ca1004b365094887b342 yes 100