Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?

The 6¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in SpaceX achieving a $1.50T-$1.75T valuation at IPO, though the massive 18,031% realized volatility and sharp 70% price decline over seven days (20¢ to 6¢) suggest significant uncertainty and potential overreaction to recent information. With only $62 in 24-hour volume against $2.9M open interest and a 10¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 6% implied probability potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The high cliff risk index (16) and rapid info arrival rate (3.8/h) indicate this market remains highly sensitive to SpaceX developments, though no near-term resolution date appears imminent.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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