Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?

The market prices Republican victory in KY-04 at 92%, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (15.8% for Yes vs. 2092% for No) signal severe illiquidity on the No side with only $650 in 24-hour volume against $32K open interest. The 1¢ spread is tight, but the 12 Cliff Risk Index and massive No-side yield suggest minimal market confidence in a Democratic upset, making this a thin market where small trades could move prices significantly despite the long 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade