Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $26,500-$28,500 in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 80¢ spread, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 195.4% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely compensates for the substantial tail risk of NDX reaching $26,500-$28,500 by December 2026—a move requiring roughly 30-40% upside from current levels over 258 days. The 864% realized volatility and 6.31 vol ratio indicate this market is pricing in extreme uncertainty, though the neutral regime and minimal price movement (43¢ to 42¢) over seven days suggest limited recent conviction in either direction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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