Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$456
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aaron Ford
Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aaron Ford
0xf762b7…9de2
Analysis
This probability indicates that prediction market participants assign a 94% chance to a specific candidate winning the Nevada Democratic gubernatorial primary. The high concentration reflects strong consensus among traders, though the 4% allocated to alternatives suggests some residual uncertainty about whether an unexpected challenger might gain traction. Primary outcomes typically depend on candidate fundraising, endorsement patterns, turnout models, and recent polling data. The resolution will occur when Nevada holds its primary election, which is the key event that determines the outcome definitively. Market prices can shift if new information emerges about candidate viability, strategic withdrawals, or shifting voter preferences in the months before the primary contest.
- ›Leader holds 94% implied probability versus 4% for runner-up, indicating strong but not overwhelming consensus among market participants
- ›Primary election date determines final resolution; shifts in candidate momentum or field composition prior to voting could alter current pricing
- ›Candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, and polling trends are observable metrics that typically correlate with primary performance
- ›Market volume and contract liquidity suggest moderate interest; higher trading activity could indicate either confidence in current odds or emerging doubts
- ›Historical performance in previous Nevada Democratic contests and candidate name recognition within the state provide baseline reference points for evaluating primary electability
Recently closed in election 2026
- Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primarylast 3% · 0d
- CA-40 Primary Winnerslast 73% · 0d
- ME-02 Republican Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
- CA-07 Primary Winnerslast 77% · 0d
- CA-45 Primary Winnerslast 64% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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