Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
0xf78be595172a9db8c6323e1927aa44b2fa2d52805d97bf4a9664593b42326534 · closes Sep 8, 2026 · 146 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire? · match confidence 0.56 · close-time delta 1359h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 30.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2025.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 8 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 62% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.10 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2025% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
72 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xf78be595172a9db8c6323e1927aa44b2fa2d52805d97bf4a9664593b42326534 yes 100