Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 5,792% implied yield on the Yes side despite 14¢ pricing, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a structural arbitrage opportunity given the $20,444 open interest against minimal $216.54 daily volume. The 543% realized volatility and neutral regime indicate high uncertainty around whether Paxton wins by the narrow 6-9% band, yet the 3¢ spread and 39-day runway to the May 26, 2026 runoff provide reasonable liquidity for position entry. The 0.69 vol ratio and 6 cliff risk index suggest this is a tail outcome bet where most traders expect either a larger or smaller margin, making the specific 6-9% band a contrarian play with genuine edge potential if fundamentals support a close race.

Resolution rules

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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