Will the Republican Party win the FL-06 House seat?

The 91¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican retention of FL-06, though the extreme 1,845% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $14,970 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2¢ spread is deceptively tight given the stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields (923%), suggesting the market lacks sufficient contrarian capital to challenge the consensus view despite 200 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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