Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

This market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing 53% over seven days from 61¢ to 40¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival regarding military de-escalation prospects. The astronomical implied yield of 3830% on the Yes side reflects the combination of low probability (40¢) and extreme time compression with only 14 days to resolution, creating a high-risk/high-reward asymmetry typical of binary events approaching expiry. The 561% realized volatility and tight 1¢ spread indicate active trading despite the cliff risk, with $178.8M in 24-hour volume suggesting market participants are actively repricing the likelihood of a Trump announcement ending Iran operations by April 30th, 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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