Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing FL-01 as heavily Republican-favored at just 7¢, implying a 93% GOP win probability, which aligns with the district's historical lean. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2424% on the Yes side reflects the extreme long-shot nature of a Democratic victory, though this metric is somewhat inflated by the low base price. With 200 days to expiration, modest 24-hour volume of $1,722, and a notable 75% price increase over the past week (from 4¢ to 7¢), this market shows limited liquidity but suggests recent modest Democratic momentum or shifting sentiment, though the cliff risk index of 13 indicates meaningful tail risk around the actual election outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade