Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 14¢ reflects extremely long odds in what is presumably a Republican-leaning Arizona district, with an asymmetric implied yield of 1121% for YES against just 29.7% for NO—suggesting the market prices Democrats as significant underdogs. Despite the compelling 561% risk-adjusted yield, the thin $126.96 daily volume and modest $15,597 open interest indicate low liquidity, which combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 6 raises concerns about execution risk if the market tightens closer to the November 2026 expiration. The 1¢ spread is tight relative to the price, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate directional pressure or volatility spike.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade