Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Gujarat Titans is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢, implying only a 6% probability of winning the 2026 IPL despite being a competitive franchise that reached the finals in 2023. The astronomical 13,004% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in an implicit assumption of team dissolution or major roster collapse, which seems unlikely given the franchise's recent performance. With $7.9M in 24-hour volume and 44 days to resolution, this appears to be a liquidity-driven misprice where the low price may reflect thin order books rather than fundamental analysis, particularly given the modest $4.7M open interest relative to trading activity.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the IPL (https://www.iplt20.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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