Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?

The 35¢ price on Sinner reflects a modest 35% win probability with an unusually high 455% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk not captured by standard metrics—the 432% realized volatility and 2.06 vol ratio indicate extreme price swings despite minimal 7-day movement (34¢ to 35¢). With $23.8M open interest but only $100 in 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges and raising questions about whether the market can efficiently price new information as the tournament approaches in 149 days.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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