Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

The 23¢ price implies only a 23% probability of 115-120m votes in 2026, suggesting the market expects either significantly higher or lower turnout than this narrow band. The extreme 609% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, making this contract unreliable for serious position-taking. With 201 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 696%, this market exhibits classic characteristics of a low-conviction, thinly-traded prediction with substantial uncertainty around baseline turnout expectations.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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