Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. This contract trades at 88¢ on Polymarket, closing June 3, 2026. The market has surged 12.6 percentage points over seven days to 89¢, reflecting strong conviction in Chong Won-oh's candidacy with just 47 days until the June 3 election.
Analysis
The market has surged 12.6 percentage points over seven days to 89¢, reflecting strong conviction in Chong Won-oh's candidacy with just 47 days until the June 3 election. However, the extreme 6,287% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe illiquidity on the downside, with only $42,121 in open interest and a tight 2¢ spread masking potential execution challenges. The 58% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (8) suggest this market remains vulnerable to late-breaking political developments despite the dominant pricing.
Also on kalshi at 89¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
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Trade
sf trade 0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0 yes 100