2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 77% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chong Won-oh
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Oh Se-hoon
Spread
53pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$362K
liquid
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Analysis
Markets are pricing Chong Won-oh as a strong favorite to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, with an 88% implied probability compared to incumbent Oh Se-hoon at 13%. Seoul's mayoral race carries significance as the capital's highest local office and typically reflects broader political sentiment in South Korea. The current probability reflects Chong's polling strength and factional positioning within Korean politics, though the election remains contested rather than predetermined. Market pricing would shift if major scandals surfaced, if polling data showed substantial movement, or if factional realignments within parties altered candidate viability. The election is scheduled for June 2026, providing the definitive resolution point; intervening months may see campaign events, debate performance, or policy announcements that shift market expectations meaningfully.
- ›Recent Seoul polling data showing Chong Won-oh's lead margin and trend direction relative to Oh Se-hoon
- ›Campaign events, debate performance, or scandal emergence between now and June 2026 that could shift voter preferences
- ›Factional support within the ruling and opposition parties, as endorsements and resource allocation influence candidate viability
- ›24-hour trading volume of $26,666 across both contracts indicates moderate liquidity and reasonable price discovery
- ›June 2026 election date as the hard resolution point for contract settlement
What moved the line
- Jun 4Oh Se-hoon↑72pp27→99¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Chong Won-oh↓71pp72→1¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Chong Won-oh↓8pp80→72¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Chong Won-oh↓7pp87→80¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Oh Se-hoon↑6pp15→21¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (77% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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