Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing June 3, 2026. Oh Se-hoon's odds have declined sharply from 10¢ to 8¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market confidence in his candidacy despite the extremely high 8936% implied yield on YES positions.
Analysis
Oh Se-hoon's odds have declined sharply from 10¢ to 8¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market confidence in his candidacy despite the extremely high 8936% implied yield on YES positions. The market shows modest liquidity with $38.5K open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, but the massive yield asymmetry (8936% vs 67.6%) indicates traders view this as a long-shot bet with substantial tail risk rather than a genuine competitive race. With 47 days until resolution and a cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a balanced probability assessment of the actual election dynamics.
Also on kalshi at 8¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
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sf trade 0xc587bda904f031a973ad3cb57128ca011bfab0f45e6cb3734ed2227c4d4be419 yes 100