Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 282.0ㅤ?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical interest. The astronomical "No" implied yield of 13,377.6% indicates severe mispricing—the market is pricing in an implausibly low probability that airline fares will exceed 282.0, likely due to lack of trading activity rather than genuine conviction. With 25 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract poses significant execution risk and should be avoided until meaningful liquidity develops.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 282.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T282.0 yes 100