Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical trading interest.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical trading interest. The astronomical "No" implied yield of 12,885% signals severe mispricing—the market is essentially valuing a "No" resolution at near-certainty, which is implausible for an airline fare index that has historically trended upward. With 25 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a dead market that should be approached with extreme caution.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 288.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T288.0 yes 100