Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 288.0ㅤ?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical trading interest.

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95¢mid
Bid/Ask 91/99¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 12, 2026·21d remaining
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T288.0
7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime
91¢91¢ current
Apr 115¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 9¢ spread suggesting some theoretical trading interest. The astronomical "No" implied yield of 12,885% signals severe mispricing—the market is essentially valuing a "No" resolution at near-certainty, which is implausible for an airline fare index that has historically trended upward. With 25 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a dead market that should be approached with extreme caution.

Resolution rules

If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 288.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 175.5%
IY (No) 17944.1%
Adj IY 8972%
CRI 10
Overround 8.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)175.5%
IY (No)17944.1%
Adj IY8972%
CRI10
Overround8.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 11:03:15 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T288.0 yes 100

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