Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 294.0ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 294.0ㅤ?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The "No" side offers an extraordinary 6116% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing—either the market underestimates deflation risk or the tiny liquidity pool has distorted pricing. With 25 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 4, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this quote for actual execution.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 294.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T294.0 yes 100