Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 744.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Bill Hill is dramatically undervalued at 10¢ despite over 560 days until resolution and $1,307 in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 744.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Bill Hill is dramatically undervalued at 10¢ despite over 560 days until resolution and $1,307 in open interest. The zero 24-hour volume and 2¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity, making the high yield potentially illusory—any meaningful position could face significant slippage. The notable discrepancy between the 744.5% Yes yield and 5.6% No yield, combined with a moderate 12 cliff risk index, suggests this contract may be mispriced due to thin trading rather than genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Bill Hill wins the Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALASKAHOUSE-26-BHIL yes 100