Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 275% annualized return versus just 15% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Matt Schultz's chances at 23¢ despite over 1.5 years until the November 2026 election.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 275% annualized return versus just 15% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Matt Schultz's chances at 23¢ despite over 1.5 years until the November 2026 election. The $0 24-hour volume and thin $993 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading as a true liquidity gauge. The 4/10 cliff risk score warrants caution—this contract faces moderate event concentration risk, and the long time horizon combined with low trading activity creates uncertainty about whether current pricing reflects genuine market consensus or simply sparse participation.
Resolution rules
If Matt Schultz wins the Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALASKAHOUSE-26-MSCH yes 100