Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 2.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 2.4%?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing May 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 492.3% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 492.3% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ spread and complete lack of trading activity suggest this contract may be inactive or abandoned, with the pricing likely reflecting a stale quote rather than genuine market consensus on Argentina's April 2026 monthly inflation rate. Given Argentina's persistent high inflation (historically running 5-15% annually in recent years), a sub-2.4% monthly reading would be exceptionally low, yet the zero price fails to capture any meaningful probability assessment due to the market's dormancy.
Resolution rules
If the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 is above 2.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARMOMINF-26MAY14-T2.4 yes 100