Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 2.4%

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in April 2026 will exceed 2.4%. The current 92% odds indicate strong consensus among traders that inflation will remain elevated at this threshold. Argentina has faced persistent inflationary pressures linked to currency depreciation, monetary policy, and energy costs. The market is pricing in continued above-target inflation relative to Argentina's central bank objectives. Resolution depends on the official April 2026 inflation data release from INDEC (Argentina's statistics agency), typically published in early May. Key drivers include exchange rate movements versus the US dollar, energy and fuel price dynamics, and the effectiveness of any monetary or fiscal interventions implemented before April. The relatively high probability suggests traders expect inflation to sustain above the 2.4% monthly level given recent trend persistence, though the 21-cent price on the 2.2% threshold indicates material uncertainty about the exact magnitude.

• ›Official April 2026 MoM inflation reading from INDEC will be the definitive resolution metric; any reading at or above 2.4% resolves the contract as winner
• ›Exchange rate ARS/USD movements in March-April 2026 directly influence import costs and inflation dynamics, with depreciation typically accelerating monthly price increases
• ›Recent months' inflation trajectory matters: if April inflation materially decelerates below 2.4% despite prior elevated readings, it would signal policy effectiveness or demand destruction
• ›Energy and fuel price dynamics globally and Argentina's domestic pricing policies will affect headline inflation; regulated price adjustments scheduled before April would be a measurable catalyst
• ›Market depth is thin at higher thresholds (8¢ on 2.4%, 21¢ on 2.2%) but concentrated at 1.4% (92¢), suggesting consensus clusters around lower bounds despite the headline probability

What moved the line

• Jul 31Above 1.2%↓32pp95→63¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 1Above 1.2%↑29pp63→92¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 30Above 1.4%↓28pp94→66¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 1Above 1.4%↑26pp65→91¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 30Above 1.6%↓25pp88→63¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds