Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 2.4%
Leader sits at 93% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.4%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Above 1.6%
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$319
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXARMOMINF-26SEP10-T1.8
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXARMOMINF-26SEP10-T1.6
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
KXARMOMINF-26SEP10-T1.4
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in April 2026 will exceed 2.4%. The current 92% odds indicate strong consensus among traders that inflation will remain elevated at this threshold. Argentina has faced persistent inflationary pressures linked to currency depreciation, monetary policy, and energy costs. The market is pricing in continued above-target inflation relative to Argentina's central bank objectives. Resolution depends on the official April 2026 inflation data release from INDEC (Argentina's statistics agency), typically published in early May. Key drivers include exchange rate movements versus the US dollar, energy and fuel price dynamics, and the effectiveness of any monetary or fiscal interventions implemented before April. The relatively high probability suggests traders expect inflation to sustain above the 2.4% monthly level given recent trend persistence, though the 21-cent price on the 2.2% threshold indicates material uncertainty about the exact magnitude.
- ›Official April 2026 MoM inflation reading from INDEC will be the definitive resolution metric; any reading at or above 2.4% resolves the contract as winner
- ›Exchange rate ARS/USD movements in March-April 2026 directly influence import costs and inflation dynamics, with depreciation typically accelerating monthly price increases
- ›Recent months' inflation trajectory matters: if April inflation materially decelerates below 2.4% despite prior elevated readings, it would signal policy effectiveness or demand destruction
- ›Energy and fuel price dynamics globally and Argentina's domestic pricing policies will affect headline inflation; regulated price adjustments scheduled before April would be a measurable catalyst
- ›Market depth is thin at higher thresholds (8¢ on 2.4%, 21¢ on 2.2%) but concentrated at 1.4% (92¢), suggesting consensus clusters around lower bounds despite the headline probability
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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