Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Pablo Carreno Busta win set 1 in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics match"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 14 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Pablo Carreno Busta win set 1 in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics match"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2728.1% and 2324.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Pablo Carreno Busta win set 1 in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics match"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2728.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2324.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2728%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3127%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.74	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win set 1 in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics match

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts