Will Olivia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will Olivia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing Olivia at an extremely high 81% probability despite zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,644, suggesting limited conviction behind the consensus view.
Analysis
The market is pricing Olivia at an extremely high 81% probability despite zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,644, suggesting limited conviction behind the consensus view. The massive 741% implied yield on the No side combined with 223% realized volatility indicates extreme mispricing risk—traders betting against Olivia face outsized returns if she fails to top the list, yet the market has barely moved in 7 days (82¢ to 85¢), suggesting the high probability may be anchored to outdated information rather than recent SSA data. With 259 days until expiry and the 5¢ spread indicating illiquidity, this market appears to be pricing in Olivia's historical dominance without accounting for the volatility and information arrival rate (1.4/h) that could shift the outcome substantially.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Olivia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-OLI yes 100