What is the current probability for "Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 286 days remaining.

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market prices a 14% probability of unified Republican control of both chambers by February 2027, reflecting the current Democratic Senate majority and competitive House dynamics.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 13/15¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $5,836.49·OI $536,352.55·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining

KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RR

7-day price7 snapshots · 110 regime

14¢13¢ current

Apr 813¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices a 14% probability of unified Republican control of both chambers by February 2027, reflecting the current Democratic Senate majority and competitive House dynamics. The 840.5% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high but somewhat misleading given the low base probability—the $881 daily volume and $487k open interest suggest moderate liquidity for a binary event with nearly 10 months to expiry. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 13¢) combined with a neutral regime score indicates the market has stabilized around this valuation, though the 7 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful tail risk around the resolution date.

Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 854.6%

IY (No) 19.1%

Adj IY 362%

CRI 7

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.15

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	854.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	362%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.427

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:33:08 PM

SF edge 9.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +9¢thesis — Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →