Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027
Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
D-House, D-Senate
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
D-House, R-Senate
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$45K
liquid
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
176 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will House Control
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: R-House, R-Senate
KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RR
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?: D-House, D-Senate
KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: D-House, R-Senate
KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Democrats control the House while Republicans control the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. At 39%, it's tied with the scenario of unified Democratic control, suggesting markets see these two outcomes as roughly equally likely. The level reflects uncertainty about the midterm environment: economic conditions, approval ratings, and historical patterns of divided government all influence whether voters will support one party for the House and the other for the Senate. The outcome will be determined on election day in November 2026, though early voting patterns and polling trends in the weeks leading up to that date will provide signals about which scenario is most probable.
- ›Current aggregate sentiment prices Democratic-controlled Senate at 78% (39% D-D scenario + 39% D-R scenario), suggesting that's the heavily favored outcome for upper chamber control
- ›Republican Senate control is priced at only 22% combined (17% R-R + 5% residual), indicating markets assess Senate Republican hold as significantly less likely than a Democratic flip
- ›The tied pricing between unified Democratic control (39%) and split control with Democratic House (39%) shows high uncertainty about whether voting patterns will produce consistency or division
- ›Historical midterm patterns and current seat distributions in both chambers will constrain which scenarios are practically achievable
- ›Polling trajectory and economic indicators through autumn 2026 will be the primary driver of probability shifts before November election day resolution
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Election 2026 markets see massive volume on long-shot presidential nominee
Abdul El-Sayed as 2028 Democratic nominee has 1.3 million volume at 1¢ – an extreme outlier. Meanwhile, Democratic House control trades at 84¢ with 755k volume. Traders should monitor these for sentiment shifts as midterms approach.
Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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