What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2249.1% and 9.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing Bitcoin above $100k by June 2026 at just 8% probability, offering an extreme 1,619% implied yield for YES holders despite Bitcoin currently trading near $100k, suggesting either significant skepticism about sustained levels or a mismatch with spot prices.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $14,931.8·OI $319,880.75·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY

7-day price132 snapshots · 125 regime

11¢6¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing Bitcoin above $100k by June 2026 at just 8% probability, offering an extreme 1,619% implied yield for YES holders despite Bitcoin currently trading near $100k, suggesting either significant skepticism about sustained levels or a mismatch with spot prices. The 259-day timeframe creates substantial cliff risk (index of 12) with realized volatility at 1,562%, and the sharp 7-day rally from 5¢ to 8¢ indicates recent repricing upward, though $10.4k daily volume remains modest relative to the $314.9k open interest. The 2.76 vol ratio and taker-dominated regime (0.635) suggest active disagreement among traders, making this a potentially mispriced tail bet if Bitcoin consolidates above $100k over the next five months.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2249.1%

IY (No) 9.2%

Adj IY 1874%

CRI 16

RV 1207%

VR 2.75

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2249.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1874%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1207%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	12.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.17	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.635

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:00:11 PM

SF edge 13.0¢ yesObservability highEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +13¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →