Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome with a 6% implied probability that BTC's trimmed mean will exceed $87,500 by late April 2026, yet the Yes contract offers an absurd 62,180% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome with a 6% implied probability that BTC's trimmed mean will exceed $87,500 by late April 2026, yet the Yes contract offers an absurd 62,180% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion. The 2¢ spread on just $28,308 open interest and $5,626 daily volume indicates dangerously thin liquidity, making the astronomical yield figures unreliable; the realized volatility of 2,736% and cliff risk index of 24 further signal this market is unstable and prone to sharp repricing. With 14 days to expiry and BTC currently trading well below the $87,500 threshold, the recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ suggests market participants are becoming more skeptical, though the extreme yield on the Yes side hints at potential arbitrage or structural issues rather than genuine conviction about the outcome.
Resolution rules
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $87500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26APR30-8750000 yes 100