What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 278.7% and 74.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing Bitcoin outperformance at just 34%, with a stark yield asymmetry favoring the "No" side at 63.9% versus 316.6% for "Yes"—suggesting strong consensus that gold will match or beat Bitcoin's 2026 returns.

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34¢

Bid/Ask 34/39¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $72.4·OI $55,233.53·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCVSGOLD-26

7-day price170 snapshots · 21 regime

37¢34¢ current

Apr 829¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

The market is pricing Bitcoin outperformance at just 34%, with a stark yield asymmetry favoring the "No" side at 63.9% versus 316.6% for "Yes"—suggesting strong consensus that gold will match or beat Bitcoin's 2026 returns. Volume is extremely thin at $102 daily against $54k open interest, indicating low liquidity and potential slippage on larger positions, while the 1¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket is negligible. With 257 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly priced but illiquid, making it suitable only for small positions or as a hedge rather than a directional bet.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 39¢(Δ -5¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.98IY 224.8%Close-time delta 5h

Resolution rules

If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 278.7%

IY (No) 74.0%

Adj IY 139%

CRI 2

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	278.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	74.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:40:56 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCVSGOLD-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →