What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2726.4% and 7.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely narrow Bitcoin price band ($45k-$50k on Jan 1, 2027) at just 5% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,675% implied yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiry.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $783.85·OI $152,709.32·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B47500

7-day price8 snapshots · 56 regime

6¢5¢ current

Apr 115¢Apr 12

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing an extremely narrow Bitcoin price band ($45k-$50k on Jan 1, 2027) at just 5% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,675% implied yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiry. The sharp asymmetry between Yes (2,675%) and No (7.4%) yields, combined with moderate liquidity ($154k open interest against $2,951 daily volume), suggests either sophisticated hedging or significant mispricing of tail risk around that specific price level. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ and zero spread indicate thin but stable positioning, though the cliff risk index of 19 warrants caution on sudden repricing near expiration.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 45000.00-49999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2726.4%

IY (No) 7.6%

Adj IY 1363%

CRI 19

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2726.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1363%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:48 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B47500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →