What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1906.4% and 10.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market implies Bitcoin will trade between $70,000-$74,999 on Jan 1, 2027, with an extremely depressed 7% probability pricing that generates a spectacular 1,871% annualized yield for Yes bettors despite only 259 days to expiration.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5,077.05·OI $124,818.41·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B72500

7-day price6 snapshots · 88 regime

7¢7¢ current

Apr 96¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market implies Bitcoin will trade between $70,000-$74,999 on Jan 1, 2027, with an extremely depressed 7% probability pricing that generates a spectacular 1,871% annualized yield for Yes bettors despite only 259 days to expiration. The 0¢ spread and modest $122k open interest suggest thin liquidity for such an extreme yield opportunity, warranting caution about whether this mispricing reflects genuine market skepticism or execution risk on a relatively illiquid venue.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 70000.00-74999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1906.4%

IY (No) 10.8%

Adj IY 953%

CRI 13

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1906.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	953%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:01:04 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B72500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →