What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2726.4% and 7.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely narrow Bitcoin price band ($85k-$90k) on Jan 1, 2027 at just 5% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,675% annualized yield for "Yes" positions despite 259 days to expiry.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/6¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,291.5·OI $124,241.54·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B87500

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing an extremely narrow Bitcoin price band ($85k-$90k) on Jan 1, 2027 at just 5% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,675% annualized yield for "Yes" positions despite 259 days to expiry. The 0¢ spread and modest $2.1k daily volume mask thin liquidity relative to the $119k open interest, while the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest the market hasn't repriced recently despite the asymmetric risk-reward. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the binary nature of this narrow range creates significant tail risk for both sides, making this a speculative contrarian bet rather than a liquid consensus forecast.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 85000.00-89999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2726.4%

IY (No) 7.6%

Adj IY 1091%

CRI 19

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.20

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2726.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1091%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:41 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B87500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →