Who will win the CA-11 House election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will win the CA-11 House election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The extreme 1226% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the minimal liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 566-day timeframe to November 2027 provides substantial time for price discovery. The flat 7-day price movement and neutral regime suggest this contract hasn't attracted meaningful trader attention yet, making it a speculative position rather than a calibrated probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Marie Hurabiell wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA11PERSON-26-MHUR yes 100