Who will win the CA-11 House election?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Who will win the CA-11 House election?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 73¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 73¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The No side offers a striking 101.1% implied yield compared to 41.3% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of the challenger or market inefficiency given the thin order book. The dramatic 59¢ price movement over seven days (2¢ to 61¢) combined with the 565-day time horizon and low cliff risk indicates this market may be driven by sporadic large trades rather than fundamental shifts in the race.
Resolution rules
If Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA11PERSON-26-SWIE yes 100