Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume against $316.7 open interest, creating a wide 7¢ spread that likely inflates the displayed 2867.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume against $316.7 open interest, creating a wide 7¢ spread that likely inflates the displayed 2867.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The price has quadrupled from 1¢ to 4¢ over seven days despite minimal trading activity, suggesting the movement may reflect thin-market volatility rather than genuine probability shifts. With 412 days to expiration and a moderate 32 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative position in an illiquid contract where the extreme yield figures should be treated skeptically given the negligible trading volume.
Resolution rules
If Nina Linh advances in the CA-40 top 2 primary election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA40PRIMARYADVANCE-26-NLIN yes 100