Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board m.... This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with only $4 in 24-hour volume against a massive 32¢ spread and $902 open interest, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with only $4 in 24-hour volume against a massive 32¢ spread and $902 open interest, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The implied yield of 14,031% on the Yes side is nonsensical given the 19-day timeframe and indicates severe mispricing, likely driven by the thin order book and recent sharp price collapse from 26¢ to 12¢ over seven days. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and realized volatility exceeding 4,600%, this contract appears highly unstable and unsuitable for serious position-taking without substantial additional liquidity.
Resolution rules
If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of Maintain current rate at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26MAY05-HOLD yes 100