Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting
Leader sits at 89% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hike 1-25bps
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Maintain current rate
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$128
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Bank of Korea
Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Maintain current rate
KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26JUL15-HOLD
Will the Bank of Korea Hike 1-25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Hike 1-25bps
KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26JUL15-H25
Will the Bank of Korea Hike more than 25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Hike more than 25bps
KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26JUL15-H25P
Will the Bank of Korea Cut 1-25bps at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?: Cut 1-25bps
KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26JUL15-C25
Analysis
This market is pricing a 30% chance that South Korea's central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Korea faces competing pressures: inflation data and economic growth considerations typically drive rate decisions, while global monetary trends—particularly signals from the Federal Reserve—influence expectations. The May meeting outcome will depend on recent inflation readings, employment conditions, and whether the BOK views current rates as appropriately calibrated to support economic activity. Once the Bank of Korea announces its decision, this market resolves with certainty.
- ›Recent inflation data in South Korea and its trajectory relative to the BOK's target range
- ›Global central bank actions and signals, especially from the Federal Reserve regarding its own rate path
- ›South Korea's economic growth rate and employment figures released ahead of the May meeting
- ›Market pricing of the decision in won-denominated assets and forward rate expectations
- ›The BOK's recent communications and guidance about future policy direction
What moved the line
- Jun 24Maintain current rate↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Hike 1-25bps↑5pp81→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Maintain current rate↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Hike 1-25bps↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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