Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. The market is pricing in an 82% probability of a 0bps rate decision, but the extreme 3049% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given only $10 in 24-hour volume against $5,428 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 82% probability of a 0bps rate decision, but the extreme 3049% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given only $10 in 24-hour volume against $5,428 open interest. The sharp 16-cent price rally over seven days combined with a 172% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (5/10) suggests recent information arrival has shifted sentiment toward no hike, though the thin liquidity makes this market unreliable for directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 0bps at its Jun 10, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUN-H0 yes 100